SS-ADR-v502-Results-17-21Sep18

Monday 17th September 2018


The day started well. I entered the trades. I made some slight adjustments by making the profit stop just off Thursday’s high 1.31228 and the Stop Loss about 5 pips under Thursday’s low 1.30198. See . The high price for the predicted candle was 1.3149. The close on the predicted candle was 1.3116. My take profit was conservatively between the predicted close and high. As it turned out the actual price reached 1.3165, 40 pips higher than my take profit. Some may say I would have been better off not having a profit stop but this is not normally the case as often after reaching a high the price comes crashing down during the New York session. I actually felt lucky because when I took a peek at the action before heading off to sleep around 6:30pm the price was heading south after making a high. I closed the laptop and thank God did not make any adjustments. I don’t get the highest price but I sleep through the action which is very valuable to me.

The result was a win of 50 pips, a good result even though it could have been 70 if I’d risked the predicted high. Yesterday’s close was 1.31581, 35 pips above my take profit so I had the lions share of the movement. Which I think is a great result.

Tuesday 18th September 2018


NO RESULT. Today, Wednesday 19th September predicted candle is bullish so yesterdays trade remains and the profit stop and stop loss are adjusted to today’s values. . I learn’t yesterday the effect of spread the difference between the ask and bid price the brokers charge for the trade. In a long trade spread figures when the commodity is purchased, profit stop is triggered when reached. A sell trade at the profit stop will occur to close the buy trade so spread does not count at the close but does at the beginning of a long or buy trade.
If the stop loss is triggered the trade is sold for a loss again the spread does not figure in the calculations at the close of a buy trade.
In a short trade, the profit stop minus spread needs to be reached before the trade can be closed with a buy at the lower price.
In a short trade, the stop loss minus spread will trigger the buy at the lower price to close out the short trade. In Summary spread comes in to play only when the commodity is bought. For a long trade that’s at the start of the trade for a short trade that occurs when the trade is closed.

Wednesday 19th September 2018


Win of 46 pips. It occurred around 6:30pm AEST on the impulse of speeches. Notice how far down it retraced 1.30963 after hitting 1.3215 1 pip under Tuesday’s predicted close of 1.3216. I had originally set the take profit on Tuesday to 1.3215 amazing that it went to that spot to the pip. But look at how far it retraced 3 hourly candles later. If it had missed my profit stop it would have hit my preferred stop loss 3 candles later. This is a good reason why the stop loss has to be left for the duration of the daily trade. With the stop loss set at a minimum 40 pips and risk to reward of 1.1:1 if this type of retracement occurs the stop loss will keep the trade alive for the certain pull back after the retracement. This type of sound wave fibonacci pulse is very common in trading. Big wick days often occur during speeches when traders are fueled by emotive responses which add momentum to the movements giving the price wave a large wavelength. As the trading volume decreases towards the start of the ASIAN range price tends back to equilibrium which is often the price at the start of the Asian market.

Thursday 20th September 2018


Win of 59pips last night 10pips more than the average win rate of 49pips and yet I am feeling a little deflated. The market moved double that, but I am compensated with the thought that I could sleep well knowing my trade had already made landfall and was safe from pillage.

I did some research yesterday which suggested that Monday and Friday trading over the long term was bad for business, but I’ve decided to forge ahead trading Friday’s and Mondays in the knowledge that September is a +70% win rate month and the times are unprecedented.

I think the USDX tanked last night on the news of China’s tariffs on American goods and the on going scandals surrounding Trump. Anyway that’s what I’m thinking, even though I know the markets are 100% manipulated. I changed the formula slightly to determine price points based on yesterdays close rather than todays open as there was a large slippage and immediate recovery to yesterdays close so I figured I shouldn’t figure in the Asian open price. It will be interesting to see how Friday’s trade works out.

My confidant (my Son who is much smarter than me) told me “there was a 190 pip rally on the 29th August 150 pip rally on the 7th Sept and again i think on the 12th…. that’s 3 I can think of in the last month“, so obviously this is just business as usual.

GBPUSD is in a nice little channel at the moment.

At the top of the channel at the moment. If it stick’s inside the channel then the profit stop won’t be reached until next week possibly Monday or Tuesday.

Friday 21st September 2018


Loss of 92 pips. Last Friday was a loss of 47pips, Friday before that was a win of 38pips. Fridays are traditionally known as weekly reversals. This week had been bullish from the start so it would have been sensible to have realised that a reversal was a strong possibility. Winning every day of the week adds to confidence levels and can give a false sense of bravado which I am susceptible to. My thinking going into this trade was that the price was in a well defined channel and that the worst case would be that price would pull back to half way into the channel and then rise or move to the other end of the channel then begin a return. The stop loss was safely placed outside the channel. I felt safe it wouldn’t be touched. In hindsight the trade risked most of the weeks winnings, it would have been more prudent to have not traded at all.

On Thursday after winning 59pips I was feeling confident and felt hesitant to trade Friday. I had done a stats run which had shown that by not trading Friday and Mondays the account was better off over the long term. My thinking was that the stats showed that September is a 70% winning month, and I should back myself.

I ran a trial from 1/1/2017 to now using the last candles close as the entry price and the results are as follows:

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7
CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0 Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=251 losses=180
unknowns=18 total=449 winpips=1.3042 lospips=1.0434 Balance=0.2608 pipspertrade=6.051655
RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US1832.26 ConsWins=12 winsfrom=2018.04.19 00:00 winsto=2018.05.04 00:00
ConsLosses=9 lossesfrom=2017.05.22 00:00 lossesto=2017.06.01 00:00 ConsPipsWon=1.3042 ConsPipslost=1.0434 AvePipsLoss=0.0058 AvePipsWin=0.0052
SlippageOccurred=250
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=73% 14w-5 1=57% 32w-24 2=44% 26w-33 3=51% 25w-24 4=56% 29w-22 5=58% 31w-22 6=69% 34w-15 7=53% 17w-15 8=75% 22w-7 9=78% 11w-3 10=50% 10w-10
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=75% 9w-3 2=72% 18w-7 3=63% 37w-21 4=59% 52w-36 5=62% 56w-34 6=54% 27w-23 7=38% 19w-30 8=69% 16w-7 9=42% 8w-11 10=52% 9w-8
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=53% 48w-41 Tuesday=72% 62w-24 Wednesday=56% 47w-36 Thursday=54% 47w-39 Friday=54% 47w-40 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=66% 28w-14 Feb=47% 19w-21 Mar=52% 23w-21 Apr=66% 26w-13 May=42% 19w-26 Jun=69% 29w-13 Jul=59% 25w-17 Aug=57% 24w-18 Sep=72% 24w-9 Oct=63% 14w-8 Nov=54% 12w-10 Dec=44% 8w-10

This trial from 1/1/2017 to now using the current candles open as the entry price and the results are as follows, notice the difference in the final balance:

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=251 losses=180 unknowns=18 total=449 winpips=1.2423 lospips=1.1078
Balance=0.1346 Pipspertrade=3.121890 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US1335.74 ConsWins=12 winsfrom=2018.04.19 00:00 winsto=2018.05.04 00:00
ConsLosses=9 lossesfrom=2017.11.01 00:00 lossesto=2017.11.13 00:00 ConsPipsWon=1.2423 ConsPipslost=1.1078 AvePipsLoss=0.0062 AvePipsWin=0.0049 SlippageOccurred=241
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=78% 15w-4 1=55% 31w-25 2=44% 26w-33 3=53% 26w-23 4=56% 29w-22 5=58% 31w-22 6=67% 33w-16 7=50% 16w-16 8=79% 23w-6 9=78% 11w-3 10=50% 10w-10
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=75% 9w-3 2=80% 20w-5 3=62% 36w-22 4=60% 53w-35 5=63% 57w-33 6=54% 27w-23 7=36% 18w-31 8=65% 15w-8 9=36% 7w-12 10=52% 9w-8
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=53% 48w-41 Tuesday=70% 61w-25 Wednesday=57% 48w-35 Thursday=55% 48w-38 Friday=52% 46w-41 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=66% 28w-14 Feb=47% 19w-21 Mar=50% 22w-22 Apr=66% 26w-13 May=44% 20w-25 Jun=71% 30w-12 Jul=59% 25w-17 Aug=54% 23w-19 Sep=75% 25w-8 Oct=63% 14w-8 Nov=50% 11w-11 Dec=44% 8w-10

If we analyse over the same period optimizing all possible options we get.

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=22 losses=9 unknowns=1 total=32 winpips=0.1066 lospips=0.0515
Balance=0.0551 Pipspertrade=17.775694 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US1144.50 ConsWins=8 winsfrom=2018.04.24 00:00 winsto=2018.08.07 00:00
ConsLosses=2 lossesfrom=2017.06.08 00:00 lossesto=2017.08.01 00:00 ConsPipsWon=0.1066 ConsPipslost=0.0515 AvePipsLoss=0.0057 AvePipsWin=0.0048 SlippageOccurred=21
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 6 8 9
% w-l 0=85% 6w-1 1=0% 0w-0 2=0% 0w-0 3=0% 0w-0 4=0% 0w-0 5=0% 0w-0 6=70% 7w-3 7=0% 0w-0 8=50% 4w-4 9=83% 5w-1 10=0% 0w-0
BodySizeCatSettings 1 2 3 4 5 6 8
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=0% 0w-0 2=100% 1w-0 3=75% 3w-1 4=90% 9w-1 5=62% 5w-3 6=0% 0w-2 7=0% 0w-0 8=66% 4w-2 9=0% 0w-0 10=0% 0w-0
WeekDaySettings 2 3 4
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=0% 0w-0 Tuesday=75% 9w-3 Wednesday=54% 6w-5 Thursday=87% 7w-1 Friday=0% 0w-0 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 3 5 6 7 8 9
% w-l Jan=66% 4w-2 Feb=0% 0w-0 Mar=0% 0w-0 Apr=71% 5w-2 May=0% 0w-0 Jun=83% 5w-1 Jul=0% 0w-0 Aug=50% 1w-1 Sep=50% 2w-2 Oct=83% 5w-1 Nov=0% 0w-0 Dec=0% 0w-0

Just restricting trades to Tuesday,Wednesday,Thursday we get

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=156 losses=99 unknowns=13 total=268 winpips=0.7911 lospips=0.5762
Balance=0.2148 Pipspertrade=8.424806 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US1665.84 ConsWins=9 winsfrom=2018.06.19 00:00 winsto=2018.07.05 00:00
ConsLosses=7 lossesfrom=2017.03.28 00:00 lossesto=2017.04.11 00:00 ConsPipsWon=0.7911 ConsPipslost=0.5762 AvePipsLoss=0.0058 AvePipsWin=0.0051 SlippageOccurred=163
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=73% 11w-4 1=60% 20w-13 2=53% 17w-15 3=58% 17w-12 4=54% 19w-16 5=64% 20w-11 6=60% 17w-11 7=66% 12w-6 8=60% 9w-6 9=88% 8w-1 10=60% 6w-4
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=72% 8w-3 2=66% 10w-5 3=67% 19w-9 4=63% 37w-21 5=62% 37w-22 6=59% 16w-11 7=41% 10w-14 8=75% 9w-3 9=40% 4w-6 10=54% 6w-5
WeekDaySettings 2 3 4
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=0% 0w-0 Tuesday=72% 62w-24 Wednesday=56% 47w-36 Thursday=54% 47w-39 Friday=0% 0w-0 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=68% 17w-8 Feb=58% 14w-10 Mar=53% 14w-12 Apr=68% 15w-7 May=41% 12w-17 Jun=72% 18w-7 Jul=70% 17w-7 Aug=52% 13w-12 Sep=78% 15w-4 Oct=76% 10w-3 Nov=50% 7w-7 Dec=44% 4w-5

Just eliminating Friday we get

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=204 losses=140 unknowns=15 total=359 winpips=1.0513 lospips=0.7902
Balance=0.2611 Pipspertrade=7.588736 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US1852.71 ConsWins=9 winsfrom=2018.04.19 00:00 winsto=2018.05.03 00:00
ConsLosses=10 lossesfrom=2017.03.27 00:00 lossesto=2017.04.11 00:00 ConsPipsWon=1.0513 ConsPipslost=0.7902 AvePipsLoss=0.0056 AvePipsWin=0.0052 SlippageOccurred=200
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=70% 12w-5 1=60% 26w-17 2=46% 21w-24 3=55% 22w-18 4=51% 21w-20 5=65% 29w-15 6=64% 27w-15 7=62% 15w-9 8=72% 16w-6 9=81% 9w-2 10=40% 6w-9
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=72% 8w-3 2=71% 15w-6 3=66% 32w-16 4=59% 43w-29 5=61% 42w-26 6=54% 23w-19 7=39% 15w-23 8=66% 12w-6 9=50% 7w-7 10=58% 7w-5
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=53% 48w-41 Tuesday=72% 62w-24 Wednesday=56% 47w-36 Thursday=54% 47w-39 Friday=0% 0w-0 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=71% 25w-10 Feb=53% 17w-15 Mar=52% 18w-16 Apr=64% 20w-11 May=39% 15w-23 Jun=75% 24w-8 Jul=61% 21w-13 Aug=54% 18w-15 Sep=76% 19w-6 Oct=61% 11w-7 Nov=50% 9w-9 Dec=50% 7w-7

Don’t trade Fridays and don’t trade when Trend Category is 2 or 10 and Body Size Category is 7 or 9

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=157 losses=86 unknowns=10 total=253 winpips=0.7644 lospips=0.4397
Balance=0.3247 Pipspertrade=13.361285 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US2202.93 ConsWins=8 winsfrom=2018.02.20 00:00 winsto=2018.03.06 00:00
ConsLosses=8 lossesfrom=2017.03.27 00:00 lossesto=2017.04.11 00:00 ConsPipsWon=0.7644 ConsPipslost=0.4397 AvePipsLoss=0.0051 AvePipsWin=0.0049 SlippageOccurred=147
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
% w-l 0=66% 10w-5 1=65% 25w-13 2=0% 0w-0 3=58% 20w-14 4=55% 20w-16 5=67% 25w-12 6=64% 22w-12 7=73% 14w-5 8=68% 13w-6 9=77% 7w-2 10=50% 1w-1
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 8 0 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=66% 6w-3 2=70% 12w-5 3=71% 28w-11 4=66% 38w-19 5=64% 37w-20 6=50% 19w-19 7=0% 0w-0 8=66% 10w-5 9=0% 0w-0 10=63% 7w-4
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 0 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=60% 36w-24 Tuesday=80% 54w-13 Wednesday=55% 31w-25 Thursday=60% 36w-24 Friday=0% 0w-0 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=65% 15w-8 Feb=60% 12w-8 Mar=58% 14w-10 Apr=69% 18w-8 May=44% 11w-14 Jun=80% 20w-5 Jul=65% 15w-8 Aug=63% 14w-8 Sep=80% 16w-4 Oct=64% 9w-5 Nov=70% 7w-3 Dec=54% 6w-5

Just restrict trades based on Trend Categories 2,10 and Body Size 7,9

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=192 losses=107 unknowns=10 total=309 winpips=0.9336 lospips=0.5572
Balance=0.3764 Pipspertrade=12.587402 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US2493.51 ConsWins=9 winsfrom=2017.04.12 00:00 winsto=2017.04.28 00:00
ConsLosses=7 lossesfrom=2017.01.26 00:00 lossesto=2017.02.10 00:00 ConsPipsWon=0.9336 ConsPipslost=0.5572 AvePipsLoss=0.0052 AvePipsWin=0.0049 SlippageOccurred=183
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
% w-l 0=70% 12w-5 1=62% 31w-19 2=0% 0w-0 3=54% 23w-19 4=62% 27w-16 5=62% 27w-16 6=70% 28w-12 7=64% 16w-9 8=72% 18w-7 9=72% 8w-3 10=66% 2w-1
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 8 0 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=70% 7w-3 2=71% 15w-6 3=71% 33w-13 4=64% 46w-25 5=65% 49w-26 6=48% 22w-23 7=0% 0w-0 8=68% 11w-5 9=0% 0w-0 10=60% 9w-6
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=60% 36w-24 Tuesday=80% 54w-13 Wednesday=55% 31w-25 Thursday=60% 36w-24 Friday=62% 35w-21 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=65% 17w-9 Feb=52% 13w-12 Mar=61% 19w-12 Apr=69% 23w-10 May=46% 14w-16 Jun=75% 24w-8 Jul=62% 17w-10 Aug=66% 18w-9 Sep=76% 20w-6 Oct=64% 11w-6 Nov=75% 9w-3 Dec=53% 7w-6

Just restrict trades based on Trend Categories 2 and Body Size 7,9

I think this produces the best result.

Symbol=GBPUSD StartDateTime=2017.01.01 00:00 EndDateTime=2018.09.21 23:00 PrOfTrend=0.69 TrendPr=0.70 PrOfTrendCat=7 CopyRateFails=0 FindCopyRateFails=0
Candles=6 TF=D1 wins=199 losses=112 unknowns=10 total=321 winpips=0.9654 lospips=0.5793
Balance=0.3861 Pipspertrade=12.415468 RiskReward=1.10 StartEquity=$US1000.00 Final=$US2553.06 ConsWins=9 winsfrom=2017.04.12 00:00 winsto=2017.04.28 00:00
ConsLosses=7 lossesfrom=2017.01.26 00:00 lossesto=2017.02.10 00:00 ConsPipsWon=0.9654 ConsPipslost=0.5793 AvePipsLoss=0.0052 AvePipsWin=0.0049 SlippageOccurred=187
TrendPercStatsSettings 0 1 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% w-l 0=70% 12w-5 1=62% 31w-19 2=0% 0w-0 3=54% 23w-19 4=62% 27w-16 5=62% 27w-16 6=70% 28w-12 7=64% 16w-9 8=72% 18w-7 9=72% 8w-3 10=60% 9w-6
BodySizeCatSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 8 0 10
% w-l 0=0% 0w-0 1=70% 7w-3 2=72% 16w-6 3=70% 33w-14 4=62% 48w-29 5=66% 51w-26 6=51% 24w-23 7=0% 0w-0 8=68% 11w-5 9=0% 0w-0 10=60% 9w-6
WeekDaySettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
% w-l Sunday=0% 0w-0 Monday=59% 36w-25 Tuesday=78% 54w-15 Wednesday=57% 34w-25 Thursday=59% 38w-26 Friday=63% 37w-21 Saturday=0% 0w-0
MonthSettings 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
% w-l Jan=65% 17w-9 Feb=52% 13w-12 Mar=61% 19w-12 Apr=67% 23w-11 May=46% 14w-16 Jun=75% 25w-8 Jul=62% 17w-10 Aug=65% 23w-12 Sep=76% 20w-6 Oct=64% 11w-6 Nov=71% 10w-4 Dec=53% 7w-6