SS-ADR Results Report 24-28 Sep 2018

Wednesday 26th September 2018


As can be seen by the picture nothing happened. Price is not far from where it started. I’ve seen this before after a big move and was not surprised. The rules and plan is to add a new trade leaving yesterdays trade as is. I’ve reduced the lot size on the pepperstone account as if yesterdays trade was a loss so the daily risk is the same. Forexct has a minimum restriction of 10,000 or 1 mini so the new trade is for 1 mini. Todays trades are on the website click here. Below for your convenience are the current trades on pepperstone for yesterday 20180926 and today’s trade Thursday 27th September 2018 (20180927).


Tuesday 25th September 2018


Price went straight to my stop loss after a slight dip during the Asian session, like that is where it was going all the time. Lost 70 pips. The silver lining is the body size category of 6 has been identified as deadly and the system will warn that it’s a body size category 6 and I won’t trade body size category 0, 6, 7 or 9, see my Research page for the optimum settings. Hell’s bells, I traded it anyway thinking it’s a Tuesday, 80% probability of success!!! Mistake. Actually I only did the Research page yesterday after I’d entered the trade, knowing body size cat 6 was dangerous. I had it pegged at 50%, but I thought the statistical probabilities of the other categories for Trend Category 1 a 60% probability when body size cat 6 is included. I should have noted when body size cat 6 is excluded Trend cat 1 probability goes from 60% to 70% which is a big increase. I know I’m a gambler at heart and this is why in the last analysis I didn’t exit the trade last night when I was watching it. I’m glade I followed my rules because it’s about maintaining the systems integrity and teaching myself to trust the system’s warnings. The trader is half the system in any trading system and training the trader to follow the system is a major part of the process and most important if this trading system is to become profitable and trade worthy.

Today 26th September 2018 trades are
here and todays trades




Monday 24th September 2018


Loss of 62 Pips. I had a feeling this day would be a losing day. But one must soldier on and follow the system otherwise what’s the use of a system if you can’t follow it blindly in the knowledge that the statistics will move the account back into positive territory if I’m consistent otherwise there is a danger that when the winners come I’ll follow my intuition rather than the system and the account will suffer losses when it should have experienced gains. If I rely on intuition I lose the advantage of a systematic approach and the stress returns. Stress occurs when a beam is experiencing a force approaching it’s strength limits. Similarly in people they experience stress when doubt and uncertainty is experienced and when their limits are being tested. I’ve done the testing and the results show if I follow the system eventually it will provide the results, abandoning the system abandons the certainty the mathematics and testing provides. Losing trades is part of the results and I should accept losing trades as business losses. I am noticing losing system traits when could be adopted by system. But one must be very careful in adopting new system characteristics that those additions will be positive for the long term.

If my account can survive 3 months at the end of November I plan on having a break over December which according to past results has only a 53% 7 wins and 6 losses advantage, and will be a good time for me to stop and reflect and review.

Stats From 2017.01.01 00:00 to Now

GBPUSD StartDate 2017.01.01 00:00 EndDate 2018.09.25 03:00 PrOfTrend 0.11 TrendPr 0.70 PrOfTrendCat 1
Candles 6 TF D1 Wins 199 Losses 113 unknowns 11 total 323
Balance 0.3799 Pipspertrade 12.175363 RiskReward 1.10 Start $US1000.00 Final $US2513.17 Slippage 188
CopyRateFails 0 FindCopyRateFails 0 winpips 0.9654 lospips 0.5856 AvePipsLoss 0.0052 AvePipsWin 0.0049
ConsWins 9 from 2017.04.12 00:00 to 2017.04.28 00:00 ConsLosses 7 from 2017.01.26 00:00 to 2017.02.10 00:00
ConsPipsWon 0.9654 ConsPipslost 0.5856

TrendPercStatsSettings

0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0=70% 12w5L 1=60% 31w20L 2=0% 0w0L 3=54% 23w19L 4=62% 27w16L 5=62% 27w16L 6=70% 28w12L 7=64% 16w9L 8=72% 18w7L 9=72% 8w3L 10=60% 9w6L

BodySizeCatSettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10
0=0% 0w0L 1=70% 7w3L 2=72% 16w6L 3=70% 33w14L 4=62% 48w29L 5=66% 51w26L 6=50% 24w24L 7=0% 0w0L 8=68% 11w5L 9=0% 0w0L 10=60% 9w6L

WeekDaySettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sunday0% 0w0L Monday58% 36w26L Tuesday78% 54w15L Wednesday57% 34w25L Thursday59% 38w26L Friday63% 37w21L Saturday0% 0w0L

MonthSettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jan65% 17w9L Feb52% 13w12L Mar61% 19w12L Apr67% 23w11L May46% 14w16L Jun75% 25w8L Jul62% 17w10L Aug65% 23w12L Sep74% 20w7L Oct64% 11w6L Nov71% 10w4L Dec53% 7w6L

What if body size cat 6 was eliminated??

The wins/total as a percentage when body size cat 6 is included is 199/323 = 62% Final Balance $2513, when 6 is not traded percentage win is 175/272 = 64% balance is $2456. So I think I’ll trade body category 6 a predicted daily candle body between 55 and 65pips is not unusual.

Stats From 2017.01.01 00:00 to Now

GBPUSD StartDate 2017.01.01 00:00 EndDate 2018.09.25 03:00 PrOfTrend 0.11 TrendPr 0.70 PrOfTrendCat 1
Candles 6 TF D1 Wins 175 Losses 89 unknowns 8 total 272
Balance 0.3684 Pipspertrade 13.955258 RiskReward 1.10 Start $US1000.00 Final $US2456.38 Slippage 158
CopyRateFails 0 FindCopyRateFails 0 winpips 0.8122 lospips 0.4438 AvePipsLoss 0.0050 AvePipsWin 0.0046
ConsWins 9 from 2017.04.12 00:00 to 2017.04.28 00:00 ConsLosses 6 from 2017.01.26 00:00 to 2017.02.10 00:00
ConsPipsWon 0.8122 ConsPipslost 0.4438

TrendPercStatsSettings

0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0=80% 12w3L 1=71% 27w11L 2=0% 0w0L 3=59% 22w15L 4=62% 23w14L 5=65% 25w13L 6=70% 24w10L 7=60% 14w9L 8=73% 14w5L 9=72% 8w3L 10=50% 6w6L

BodySizeCatSettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 8 10
0=0% 0w0L 1=70% 7w3L 2=72% 16w6L 3=70% 33w14L 4=62% 48w29L 5=66% 51w26L 6=0% 0w0L 7=0% 0w0L 8=68% 11w5L 9=0% 0w0L 10=60% 9w6L

WeekDaySettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sunday0% 0w0L Monday63% 29w17L Tuesday81% 49w11L Wednesday62% 34w20L Thursday55% 30w24L Friday66% 33w17L Saturday0% 0w0L

MonthSettings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jan70% 17w7L Feb54% 12w10L Mar56% 13w10L Apr75% 21w7L May48% 12w13L Jun77% 24w7L Jul63% 14w8L Aug63% 19w11L Sep72% 16w6L Oct83% 10w2L Nov71% 10w4L Dec63% 7w4L